Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf281…55e4 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+4%) realized +$72 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$84
world 35% +$26
sports 10% +$67
politics 9% +$27
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 48 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 48 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 25% -6.6%
all 48 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 25% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 25% -6.6%
10% -24.0% 21% -15.5%
15% -31.3% 19% -23.7%
20% -38.1% 19% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 12¢ 12¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 42¢ 32¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $65 −$7 -11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kanye release Bully Deluxe by June 19? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $116 +$39 +34%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $26 −$18 -69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $31 +$21 +67%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $168 +$10 +6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$15 +53%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$66 +199%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $24 −$15 -61%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $9 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $167 −$14 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $157 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$47 +475%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 18h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 57¢ $58 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $8 18h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 18h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 18h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $14 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 34h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 38h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 38h
Will Kanye release Bully Deluxe by June 19? BUY No 35¢ $26 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $8 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $52 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 43h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Haiti: BUY 11¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 28¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY No $1 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY No $5 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY No $6 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 74¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.97 · official $93.57 (match) · 124 history records