Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf27d…e6d3 politics 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$25,659 (+39%) realized +$31,603 · open −$5,944
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +163% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%72W / 35L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$22,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1,155
other 16% +$4,324
politics 16% +$1,135
finance 8% +$1,504
crypto 8% −$883
sports 6% −$3,096
tech 4% +$999
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+137.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 28% -18.4%
≤30d 106 +161.6% +136.7% 67% 56% +19.7%
≤90d 107 +162.6% +137.6% 67% 56% +19.7%
all 107 +162.6% +137.6% 67% 56% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +137.6% 56% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here +114.8% 42% +8.3%
15% +94.1% 36% -2.2%
20% +75.0% 29% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +163% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +153% → late +172% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$146 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$22,362
Realized+$31,603
Unrealized−$5,944
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses72 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions94
Markets (closed)107 / 190
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$350
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $1,586 $1,385 −$200 (-13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1,430 $1,354 −$76 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1,380 $1,295 −$85 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 60¢ $1,268 $1,210 −$59 (-5%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $2,267 $1,177 −$1,090 (-48%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $2,328 $1,151 −$1,176 (-51%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $902 $1,065 +$163 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 40¢ $910 $988 +$78 (+9%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 23¢ 20¢ $1,098 $963 −$134 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $978 $941 −$36 (-4%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 44¢ 49¢ $842 $923 +$81 (+10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $704 $773 +$69 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $780 $720 −$60 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $535 $542 +$8 (+1%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 43¢ 42¢ $491 $477 −$13 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $455 $404 −$50 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 57¢ 60¢ $383 $404 +$20 (+5%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 10¢ $379 $402 +$23 (+6%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $404 $368 −$36 (-9%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $1,007 $346 −$662 (-66%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $1,145 $321 −$824 (-72%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 49¢ 53¢ $298 $319 +$21 (+7%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 32¢ 26¢ $383 $318 −$65 (-17%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $307 $280 −$27 (-9%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $398 $234 −$164 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 16 $141 −$146 -104%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $777 −$751 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,292 +$313 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,235 −$5 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $620 −$233 -38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1,239 +$134 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $1,501 +$230 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $573 −$131 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,232 −$584 -47%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $805 +$29 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,747 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,395 −$321 -13%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $274 +$19 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $1,021 +$165 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $970 −$219 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $397 −$64 -16%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after t Jun 10 $21 +$6 +28%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +92%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 08 $32 +$8 +24%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 08 $334 +$407 +122%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 08 $920 −$77 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 08 $168 +$101 +60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 08 $917 +$193 +21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $69 −$10 -15%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 07 $468 +$1,341 +286%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 06 $352 +$30 +8%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 06 $181 +$1,794 +993%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$164 +3043%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $59 +$316 +536%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $80 +$316 +395%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 05 $262 +$309 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 05 $302 +$151 +50%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 05 $5 +$49 +936%
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 04 $110 −$91 -83%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 03 $78 +$11 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$20 +615%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +14%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 03 $298 +$76 +26%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 03 $627 +$1,018 +162%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 01 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 01 $176 +$334 +190%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $0 +$29 +8506%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $95 54m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 14¢ $117 57m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 13¢ $7 57m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 13¢ $2 57m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 13¢ $2 57m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 13¢ $7 57m
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 13¢ $1 58m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $91 59m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $63 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $7 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $30 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $33 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $5 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $47 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $73 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $310 1h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 31¢ $43 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 1h
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $3 1h
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? BUY No 48¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,361.97 · official $22,360.35 (match) · 3500 history records