Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf27c…51f8 politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,323 (+1%) realized +$1,324 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%39W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,280per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days+$41
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$249
other 39% −$122
sports 13% +$1,677
world 2% −$25
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +5.5% -4.5% 10% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 91 -8.4% -17.2% 9% 5% -9.6%
all 156 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 10% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 9% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,693) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$8 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,453
Realized+$1,324
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses39 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,280
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,066 $1,065 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $388 $387 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,582 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,035 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $6,072 −$7 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $4,397 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,320 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,038 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,242 −$7 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,058 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $52 +$30 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,249 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $2,342 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $534 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,269 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,327 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,740 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $6,138 −$8 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $50 +$67 +134%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $3,952 −$5 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $774 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $7,387 −$8 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,731 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,171 −$4 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $2,879 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 2h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 4h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,390 21h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,392 24h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 29h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $996 46h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $997 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $388 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,253 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,255 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,185 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,681 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,683 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,452.78 · official $1,452.78 (match) · 507 history records