Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf27c…75b5 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$2
politics 27% −$1
other 16% −$3
economics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 2% −$3
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 0% -8.8%
all 44 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -24.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage269d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 23 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 07 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 27 $1 $0 +9%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $13 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $29 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $29 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $12 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $19 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $30 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $27 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.81 · official $31.81 (match) · 155 history records