Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf27c…48e6 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%90W / 2L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
tech 0% +$1
other 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 23 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 9% -9.3%
all 92 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses90 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage247d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? May 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 9? Apr 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? Mar 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? Mar 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 15? Feb 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 3 Jan 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 26 Jan 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $108 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $114 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $116 21d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $104 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $105 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $106 48d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $6 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 65d
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $105 79d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $3 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $111 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $108 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $108 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $104 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $103 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $103 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.19 · official $112.19 (match) · 189 history records