Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf27a…78d8 crypto 784 markets active 4h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$504 (-1%) realized −$477 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%450W / 327L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day93.7pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$664
14 days+$224
30 days−$1,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,983
sports 18% +$542
other 10% +$245
weather 9% −$591
world 5% +$283
tech 2% +$108
politics 1% −$203
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 27% -6.1%
≤30d 693 -9.2% -17.8% 60% 30% -11.9%
≤90d 777 -11.6% -20.0% 58% 29% -12.0%
all 777 -11.6% -20.0% 58% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 29% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 19% -20.4%
15% -34.7% 13% -28.1%
20% -41.1% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses450 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions4
Markets (closed)777 / 784
History coverage36d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day93.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $68 $53 −$15 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 74¢ 95¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$19 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $161 +$36 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $101 +$106 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $104 −$103 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $802 +$67 +8%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +64%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $799 +$51 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $46 −$42 -91%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$25 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $520 +$76 +15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $137 −$2 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $143 +$73 +51%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $428 +$103 +24%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $402 +$91 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$23 -75%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $403 +$35 +9%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $95 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$27 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $50 +$18 +35%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 +$18 +35%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 +$123 +482%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $509 −$504 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $198 −$195 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $41 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner SELL Sweden 99¢ $34 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 72¢ $49 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $111 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $869 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 5h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Sweden 58¢ $20 7h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $802 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $850 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $16 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $72 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $66 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $591 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $596 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $135 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $135 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.52 · official $130.52 (match) · 3385 history records