Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf278…cf55 crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%134W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day113.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$97
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$103
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 37% -13.1%
≤30d 258 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 258 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -13.1%
all 258 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 39% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 28% -21.4%
15% -31.4% 17% -29.0%
20% -38.2% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses134 / 124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day113.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1121 history records