Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14

7 days+$14

14 days+$14

30 days+$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	60¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$16	+156%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 91% +$16

crypto 9% −$2

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$2	2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	99¢	$26	6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+15.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+27.8%	+15.6%	50%	50%	+93.3%
≤30d	2	+27.8%	+15.6%	50%	50%	+93.3%
≤90d	2	+27.8%	+15.6%	50%	50%	+93.3%
all	2	+27.8%	+15.6%	50%	50%	+93.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.6%	50%	+93.3%
10%	+4.6%	50%	+74.8%
15%	-5.5%	50%	+57.9%
20%	-14.8%	50%	+42.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.