Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf273…efe8 crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-9%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%162W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$34
world 5% −$148
other 5% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 62% -18.6%
≤30d 250 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 62% -18.6%
≤90d 250 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 62% -18.6%
all 250 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 62% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 62% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 51% -26.4%
15% -29.4% 34% -33.5%
20% -36.3% 20% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses162 / 88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)250 / 254
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 68¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 68¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 68¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.06 · official $37.38 · 566 history records