Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf272…25a0 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$101 (-2%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day173.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$21
crypto 33% −$78
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 15% -11.1%
≤30d 33 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 15% -11.1%
≤90d 33 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 15% -11.1%
all 33 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 15% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 15% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 6% -19.6%
15% -30.1% 3% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day173.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3,485 −$4 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $159 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $205 −$10 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 29 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $106 +$1 +1%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 29 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $409 +$53 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $97 −$55 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $121 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $98 +$36 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 8m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 9m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 9m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 9m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 9m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 19m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 19m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 20m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 20m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 21m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 21m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 21m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 21m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 23m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 23m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 24m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 25m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 26m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 26m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $226 26m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $226 26m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 28m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 28m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 29m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records