Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F2 0xf272…956e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$586 (+5%) realized +$568 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate38%5W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$739per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$3,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-6.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+3.4%	-6.4%	38%	31%	-10.9%
≤30d	13	+3.4%	-6.4%	38%	31%	-10.9%
≤90d	13	+3.4%	-6.4%	38%	31%	-10.9%
all	13	+3.4%	-6.4%	38%	31%	-10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.4%	31%	-10.9%
10% ← realistic here	-15.4%	23%	-19.4%
15%	-23.6%	23%	-27.2%
20%	-31.1%	15%	-34.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$453 vs −$298 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$3,089

Realized+$568

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses5 / 8

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage3d

Avg bet$739

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$3,071	$3,089	+$18 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$305	−$33	-11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$699	−$577	-82%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$1,905	+$2,089	+110%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$3,394	−$1,626	-48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 21	$201	−$3	-2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 21	$302	−$7	-2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 21	$202	−$4	-2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$11	+11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$207	+$6	+3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$84	+$123	+145%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$115	−$31	-27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$77	+$38	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$3,085	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	37¢	$272	2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	40¢	$305	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	10¢	$122	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	55¢	$699	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	7¢	$106	19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,798	30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$1,701	31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	47¢	$1,706	31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$2,290	32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$1,003	32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	30¢	$196	32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$204	32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	43¢	$62	32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	90¢	$197	33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	79¢	$294	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	64¢	$198	33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	81¢	$199	33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$302	40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$201	40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$201	40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$213	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$207	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$207	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	40¢	$84	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	54¢	$85	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,089.02 · official $3,192.02 · 35 history records