Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf26f…112d crypto 914 markets active 10h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,619 (+12%) realized +$4,619 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%531W / 563L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,265
other 1% +$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -67.2% -70.3% 16% 16% -20.7%
≤30d 481 -31.7% -38.2% 37% 34% -4.7%
≤90d 1094 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 41% -5.9%
all 1094 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 41% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 41% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 31% -14.9%
15% -33.1% 22% -23.1%
20% -39.7% 20% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,619
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses531 / 563
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1094 / 914
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1094 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $557 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $562 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records