Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf26d…eb86 crypto 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-4%) realized −$216 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%107W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$1
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$363
other 4% −$11
sports 2% +$72
world 0% −$21
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -29.5% -36.2% 48% 26% -10.7%
≤30d 181 -16.0% -24.0% 56% 36% -14.3%
≤90d 193 -16.6% -24.6% 55% 36% -14.7%
all 193 -16.6% -24.6% 55% 36% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 36% -14.7%
10% -31.8% 18% -22.9%
15% -38.4% 11% -30.3%
20% -44.4% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses107 / 86
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)193 / 208
History coverage50d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 40¢ 31¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $115 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$33 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.72 · official $84.72 (match) · 721 history records