Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf26c…2cf1 world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$15
other 18% −$9
sports 9% +$5
politics 7% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 34 +2.6% -7.1% 44% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 71 +1.4% -8.3% 39% 3% -9.1%
all 89 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage543d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $56 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $113 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $3 $0 -11%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $50 −$2 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $111 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $78 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $196 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $178 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $62 +$10 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 +$1 +75%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $52 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $32 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $43 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $42 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $209 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $54 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $11 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $24 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $21 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $20 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $56 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $23 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.51 · official $55.27 (match) · 395 history records