Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf26c…3823 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$63 (+20%) realized +$109 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$25
sports 42% −$15
finance 3% +$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.0% +15.9% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤30d 14 +91.3% +73.1% 50% 50% +26.4%
≤90d 26 +74.1% +57.5% 46% 46% +14.3%
all 26 +74.1% +57.5% 46% 46% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.5% 46% +14.3%
10% +42.5% 46% +3.3%
15% +28.7% 42% -6.7%
20% +16.1% 42% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage64d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+222%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 60¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 28¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$17 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$32 +152%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 +$6 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $8 +$15 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $5 +$28 +549%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $5 +$37 +712%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 04 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $1 +$2 +224%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $1 +$4 +409%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $20 −$9 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $10 +$13 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 14d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 14d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 25¢ $5 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 50¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 35¢ $8 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 38¢ $4 28d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $5 28d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 28d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 28d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes $5 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY No 14¢ $1 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 12¢ $5 29d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 BUY Yes $10 48d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 30¢ $11 48d
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P BUY Yes 17¢ $1 56d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 56d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 56d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes $1 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.04 · official $25.04 (match) · 49 history records