Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf26a…49cb world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
world 24% −$2
other 15% +$1
culture 9% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 0% -9.8%
all 35 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage324d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $19 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $22 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $29 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $18 −$4 -25%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $12 −$2 -13%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 08 $107 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 6? Aug 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $7 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $32 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.09 · official $32.09 (match) · 141 history records