Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf26a…8074 world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
politics 20% +$1
other 14% −$5
sports 9% −$2
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 28 -1.6% -11.0% 29% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 79 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 3% -9.7%
all 103 -1.0% -10.5% 36% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 66
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage532d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 74¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $121 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$3 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $11 −$4 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $15 +$4 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $87 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $165 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $2 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $5 $0 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $47 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $138 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $52 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $66 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $55 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $55 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $5 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $2 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $38 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $5 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $16 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $36 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $52 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $52 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $29 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $45 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 419 history records