Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf268…ecf6 sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized −$5,814 · open +$5,887
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$4,741
other 25% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +17.5% +6.3% 57% 57% -8.2%
≤30d 52 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 48% -15.8%
≤90d 52 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 48% -15.8%
all 52 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 48% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 48% -15.8%
10% -20.3% 44% -23.8%
15% -28.0% 37% -31.2%
20% -35.1% 33% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$300 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$9,752
Realized−$5,814
Unrealized+$5,887
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage26d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 26¢ 66¢ $3,865 $9,752 +$5,887 (+152%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,238 −$88 -4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $1,409 −$1,391 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $476 −$470 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $282 +$194 +69%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $96 +$187 +195%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $79 +$17 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,277 +$861 +67%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $813 +$984 +121%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,605 −$295 -18%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1,013 +$787 +78%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,184 +$381 +32%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $471 +$775 +165%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $153 +$266 +174%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $176 +$29 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $154 −$152 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 +$62 +163%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$23 +162%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$94 -92%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $161 −$160 -99%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $178 +$156 +88%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $110 +$68 +62%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $88 +$22 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $895 −$810 -90%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $261 −$213 -82%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $201 +$64 +32%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $594 −$586 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $868 +$223 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $681 −$672 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $241 +$212 +88%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 24 $150 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner May 24 $135 −$134 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs STATE - Map 1 Winner May 24 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner May 24 $670 −$286 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $346 +$152 +44%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winne May 24 $171 +$176 +103%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 24 $130 −$129 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $477 −$472 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $138 +$340 +246%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $556 −$187 -34%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winne May 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 23 $201 +$180 +90%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 23 $362 +$168 +46%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - XPortal Playoff May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 23 $400 +$237 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $952 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $952 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $996 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $981 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 57¢ $1,409 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $476 4h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr SELL Passion Academy 68¢ $477 5h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 39¢ $282 5h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $283 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 34¢ $21 9h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $40 9h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $34 9h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $96 9h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner BUY Ground Zero 82¢ $79 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,124 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,199 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $878 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,257 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,277 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $1,017 23h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner SELL Fortress 100¢ $1,797 23h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 48¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 38¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 38¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 47¢ $508 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,311 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,605 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 26¢ $1,464 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,226 28h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 20¢ $102 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,752.24 · official $9,752.24 (match) · 135 history records