Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf268…ab74 sports 329 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,088 (+10%) realized +$3,091 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%204W / 122L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$615
14 days+$6,231
30 days+$5,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,316
other 8% −$269
politics 1% −$229
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +69.1% +53.0% 67% 67% +58.4%
≤30d 75 +25.2% +13.2% 65% 63% +36.6%
≤90d 216 -10.9% -19.3% 49% 36% -6.0%
all 326 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 34% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 34% -1.2%
10% -16.5% 29% -10.7%
15% -24.6% 25% -19.3%
20% -32.0% 20% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$74 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$3,091
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses204 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions3
Markets (closed)326 / 329
History coverage119d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No 69¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Zhizhen Zhang 38¢ 36¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 76¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 19 $142 −$7 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $208 +$210 +101%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $171 +$47 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $59 +$183 +313%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $237 +$184 +78%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Patrik Meszaros vs Oscar Jose Gutierrez Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Set Handicap: Martinez (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) Jun 11 $107 +$138 +129%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $162 +$74 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $474 +$130 +27%
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) Jun 10 $166 −$163 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +19%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $804 +$1,082 +135%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $409 +$595 +146%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $349 +$371 +106%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $29 +$18 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $102 +$108 +106%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $613 +$754 +123%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $614 +$802 +131%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $697 +$1,346 +193%
Set Handicap: Sakkari (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 09 $17 +$15 +86%
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $26 +$13 +48%
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $24 +$26 +107%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $49 +$10 +19%
Israel vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $60 +$22 +37%
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $60 +$22 +37%
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $105 +$14 +14%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $230 +$34 +15%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 09 $314 +$41 +13%
Belarus vs. Armenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $5 +$7 +143%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $160 +$73 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $478 +$131 +27%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $111 −$110 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles Jun 08 $60 +$103 +172%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 07 $46 −$44 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $75 −$73 -98%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 +$6 +134%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 07 $54 +$59 +109%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $149 −$147 -98%
ITF Sumter: Reese Brantmeier vs Cadence Brace Jun 06 $38 −$37 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 38¢ $27 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 SELL Over 47¢ $135 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 48¢ $142 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $208 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 69¢ $101 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 76¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $242 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $32 6d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 78¢ $171 6d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Patrik Meszaros vs Oscar Jose Gutierrez BUY Patrik Meszaros 29¢ $2 7d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 29¢ $92 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $18 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $4 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $13 7d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $5 7d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $5 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $162 8d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 78¢ $474 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $21 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) BUY Stefanini 48¢ $121 8d
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) BUY Stefanini 47¢ $1 8d
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) BUY Stefanini 47¢ $44 8d
Set Handicap: Martinez (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) BUY Balshaw 42¢ $8 8d
Set Handicap: Martinez (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) BUY Balshaw 43¢ $99 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $5 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $1,886 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.77 · official $124.77 (match) · 954 history records