Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf267…86d2 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$8
other 20% $0
politics 8% $0
finance 7% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -11.4%
all 29 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage450d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $47 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $66 −$8 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $44 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 05 $3 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $7 $0 -2%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $32 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $27 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $32 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $28 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $6 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $20 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $11 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $27 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 34d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $45 34d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $44 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records