Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf263…e9c1 crypto 1509 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,913 (-19%) realized −$12,913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%783W / 726L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$3,807
crypto 24% −$218
world 12% −$1,015
other 11% +$406
politics 2% +$174
tech 1% +$149
finance 0% +$70
culture 0% −$200
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 62% +3.3%
≤30d 62 +3.2% -6.6% 60% 58% -26.7%
≤90d 451 -1.6% -11.0% 69% 41% -15.2%
all 1509 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 43% -15.3%
10% -19.2% 37% -23.4%
15% -27.0% 34% -30.8%
20% -34.2% 31% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses783 / 726
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1509 / 1509
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1509 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$55 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$156 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $306 +$157 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$41 +41%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$65 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $306 +$133 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$58 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$65 -32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$41 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$7 -6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $205 +$154 +75%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$32 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$23 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $505 +$109 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$46 -45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$105 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 +$56 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$40 +39%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $102 +$40 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $408 +$152 +37%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $102 +$49 +48%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $307 +$209 +68%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $78 +$41 +52%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $102 +$73 +71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $2,765 −$2,765 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $103 +$130 +126%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $564 +$158 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 05 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $10 +$3 +25%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $157 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $102 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $259 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $463 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $306 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $102 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $103 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $168 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $102 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $439 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $44 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $306 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $98 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $102 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $96 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $102 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records