Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf262…4577
crypto · 461 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$67 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$530
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses379 / 78
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)457 / 461
History coverage37d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$71
14 days+$74
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$8
other 8% −$10
world 7% −$73
sports 4% +$60
politics 2% −$21
tech 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 22% +3.3%
≤30d 364 -10.4% -18.9% 79% 20% -44.0%
≤90d 457 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 35% -10.9%
all 457 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 35% -10.9%
10% -18.1% 24% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 15% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.28 · official $529.35 (match) · 688 history records