Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf261…a182 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%111W / 43L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$29
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$15
other 4% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.9% -13.0% 29% 29% +22.6%
≤30d 10 +11.5% +0.9% 40% 30% +23.0%
≤90d 13 +16.8% +5.7% 46% 31% +23.0%
all 154 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 27% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 27% -7.6%
10% -15.9% 21% -16.4%
15% -24.0% 19% -24.5%
20% -31.5% 18% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses111 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage220d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 +$31 +41%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +142%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4AM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9PM ET Dec 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 02 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11PM ET Dec 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 02 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10PM ET Dec 02 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 9PM ET Dec 02 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 8PM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9PM ET Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 29 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 28 $196 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7AM ET Nov 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Nov 26 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 6AM ET Nov 26 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8PM ET Nov 26 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 7PM ET Nov 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Nov 25 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6AM ET Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4AM ET Nov 25 $1 +$2 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7PM ET Nov 25 $0 +$1 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET Nov 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10PM ET Nov 24 $2 +$3 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9PM ET Nov 24 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8PM ET Nov 24 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 24 $214 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6AM ET Nov 23 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET Nov 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $74 3d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 12d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 44d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 44d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 193d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records