Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf25c…613e crypto 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+0%) realized +$175 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%245W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$164
other 1% +$2
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 141 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 246 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×178.05 per $1 lost it wins $178.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$1,115
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses245 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)246 / 248
History coverage174d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $964 $962 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 23 $928 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $597 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $518 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 21? Jun 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 21? Jun 21 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 20? Jun 20 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 20? Jun 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 20? Jun 20 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,112 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? Jun 18 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $886 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 17? Jun 18 $178 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? Jun 18 $707 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,109 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,108 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 15? Jun 15 $395 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $712 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $664 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 14? Jun 15 $242 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $269 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $607 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $229 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 11? Jun 12 $295 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 11? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $342 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 10? Jun 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 10? Jun 11 $265 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 on June 10? Jun 11 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,097 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,096 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,095 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,094 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,091 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,068 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $738 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $227 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $153 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $189 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $928 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $597 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $532 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $555 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $403 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,112 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $886 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $225 6d
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $178 6d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $707 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,109 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,108 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $664 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $48 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $395 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $242 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $173 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $658 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.72 · official $1,114.72 (match) · 546 history records