Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf259…eb1a other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$958 (-43%) realized −$979 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$56
14 days−$834
30 days−$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$907
other 27% +$27
sports 12% −$78
world 10% +$2
economics 2% −$12
tech 2% +$12
finance 2% +$10
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 75% +4.3%
≤30d 16 -12.9% -21.2% 62% 56% -61.7%
≤90d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 41% -53.8%
all 37 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 41% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 41% -53.8%
10% -30.4% 27% -58.2%
15% -37.1% 19% -62.2%
20% -43.3% 5% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$65 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$979
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage73d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $82 $88 +$6 (+7%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 79¢ 88¢ $73 $82 +$9 (+12%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$42 +49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$19 +21%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$33 -65%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$9 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $182 −$182 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $696 −$677 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $21 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $50 −$7 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $23 +$3 +14%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 05 $3 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 01 $31 +$13 +41%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 01 $40 −$9 -23%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $5 +$15 +288%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $40 +$13 +32%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $15 +$8 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $21 −$17 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $40 −$23 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $73 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $82 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $18 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $26 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.03 · official $272.03 (match) · 105 history records