Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf257…1950 sports 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (787 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-2%) realized −$192 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%84W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day787.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$46
other 24% −$110
weather 12% +$75
crypto 9% −$50
world 1% −$1
economics 1% +$2
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (787 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -21.4% -28.9% 44% 29% -13.5%
≤30d 189 -21.4% -28.9% 44% 29% -13.5%
≤90d 189 -21.4% -28.9% 44% 29% -13.5%
all 189 -21.4% -28.9% 44% 29% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover787.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 29% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 21% -21.8%
15% -41.9% 15% -29.3%
20% -47.6% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,938
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses84 / 105
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions294
Markets (closed)189 / 485
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day787.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 294 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Rune Eaters 52¢ 100¢ $52 $101 +$49 (+93%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? No 3¢ 99¢ $2 $69 +$67 (+3523%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 34¢ 40¢ $47 $55 +$8 (+16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 38¢ 40¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+10%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Norway 82¢ 84¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 96¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 64¢ 64¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 43¢ 44¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 62¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 96¢ 95¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 63¢ 62¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 43¢ 42¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-3%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Zizou Bergs 63¢ 62¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 63¢ 60¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? No 78¢ 74¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Under 70¢ 66¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 69¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Gyeong Seo Lee Jun 26 $4 +$3 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $47 +$12 +26%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $55 −$29 -52%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $46 +$5 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $6 +$10 +188%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $38 +$4 +10%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $47 +$5 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $46 +$9 +20%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $47 +$17 +36%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $93 −$16 -17%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $74 +$26 +34%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $90 +$139 +155%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $7 −$6 -86%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $7 −$4 -57%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $18 −$3 -16%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $19 $0 +1%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $24 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $32 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $50 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $47 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $94 −$34 -36%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $47 +$39 +83%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $69 +$43 +63%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +40%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +26%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $3 +$1 +16%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $4 +$2 +44%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $7 −$1 -14%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 +$3 +16%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $51 −$30 -58%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$18 +596%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 26 $32 +$1 +5%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 26 $47 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 99¢ $3 1m
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $3 8m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 17m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 19m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 25¢ $20 23m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 25¢ $16 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $3 25m
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $3 27m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $11 28m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 42¢ $10 31m
ITF Alkmaar: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs Julien Penzlin BUY Manel Lazaro Juncadella 41¢ $10 41m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 51¢ $3 42m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $18 43m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 59¢ $7 45m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 51¢ $47 47m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $3 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 51m
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 55m
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 67¢ $3 56m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $22 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $24 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $3 1h
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 63¢ $3 1h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Essex 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 37¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 37¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 1h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,937.94 · official $3,937.30 (match) · 913 history records