Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf255…a6e8 weather 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+6%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$21
14 days+$25
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+75.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +197.0% +168.7% 81% 62% -10.4%
≤30d 42 +122.6% +101.4% 64% 48% -11.7%
≤90d 50 +93.5% +75.1% 56% 42% -14.0%
all 50 +93.5% +75.1% 56% 42% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.1% 42% -14.0%
10% +58.3% 32% -22.2%
15% +43.0% 28% -29.8%
20% +29.0% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +207% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 −$47 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$43 +4349%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$4 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $0 +$2 +900%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 +$3 +1300%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 29? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $8 −$7 -89%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? May 25 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24? May 25 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 17? May 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 14 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $3 −$2 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 48¢ $52 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $82 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 89¢ $32 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 162 history records