Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf255…a2f1 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$808 (+14%) realized +$770 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$275
sports 27% +$254
crypto 18% +$481
world 4% −$254
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +20.0% +8.6% 45% 37% +0.6%
≤30d 49 +20.0% +8.6% 45% 37% +0.6%
≤90d 49 +20.0% +8.6% 45% 37% +0.6%
all 49 +20.0% +8.6% 45% 37% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 37% +0.6%
10% -1.8% 35% -9.0%
15% -11.3% 31% -17.8%
20% -20.0% 27% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +104% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$68 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$770
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage7d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 60¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+7%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $875 +$476 +54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$90 -87%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $523 +$246 +47%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $433 +$344 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $303 +$147 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 +$181 +86%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$102 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $111 +$88 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 +$67 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$641 +2402%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $95 −$3 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $377 +$19 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,352 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $875 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $770 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $523 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $245 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 47h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $127 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $306 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $307 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $450 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $303 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $392 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $13 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $153 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $211 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.63 · official $236.63 (match) · 169 history records