Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf254…76de world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$1
world 30% +$7
other 21% −$1
economics 8% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.2% 33% 17% -7.8%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.1% 46% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 13 -0.7% -10.1% 46% 8% -7.8%
all 33 -2.0% -11.3% 24% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage330d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $39 +$4 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $58 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $6 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $35 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 25 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $9 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $11 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $27 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $31 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records