Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf250…f127
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$170 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$398 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$398
14 days−$398
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$64 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $151 −$28 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$25 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $91 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $270 −$88 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $185 +$35 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$68 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$39 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$23 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $58 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $58 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $96 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $96 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $116 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $106 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $79 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 27% -36.3%
≤30d 15 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 27% -36.3%
≤90d 15 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 27% -36.3%
all 15 -51.1% -55.7% 33% 27% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.7% 27% -36.3%
10% ← realistic here -60.0% 20% -42.4%
15% -63.8% 7% -48.0%
20% -67.4% 0% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records