Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F2 0xf24f…b31c other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$26 (+7%) realized +$124 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$98
other 36% +$46
crypto 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤30d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +6.3%
≤90d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +6.3%
all 4 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 75% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 75% +6.3%
10% +3.1% 50% -3.9%
15% -6.9% 50% -13.2%
20% -16.0% 50% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 1¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $92 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 13d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.65 · official $1.65 (match) · 12 history records