Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf24d…7588 other 33 markets active 2d ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1
finance 21% $0
crypto 11% $0
world 5% +$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 21 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -3.2% -12.5% 76% 0% -9.4%
all 25 -3.2% -12.5% 76% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)25 / 33
History coverage41d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $191 $191 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $183 $0 -0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $191 47h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 47h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $179 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $183 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $13 5d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $184 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $184 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 20d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 26d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? BUY No 97¢ $1 26d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.63 · official $252.63 (match) · 86 history records