Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf24c…ba91 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2
politics 19% −$4
sports 5% −$56
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -3.9% -13.0% 10% 7% -9.8%
all 107 -3.9% -13.0% 10% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 7% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 7% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 96
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage85d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 60¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $449 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $367 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $380 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $387 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $380 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $354 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 10h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $7 12h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 25h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 30h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.45 · official $19.45 (match) · 292 history records