Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf249…d47a
crypto · 54 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$520 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$520 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses20 / 34
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage36d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 0 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$552
14 days−$648
30 days−$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$65 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $98 −$97 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$25 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $175 −$98 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $252 −$226 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $245 +$34 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $11 +$187 +1755%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 14 $101 −$89 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 14 $66 −$53 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 10 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 10 $501 +$110 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 10 $166 +$42 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 10 $508 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 10 $206 +$156 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 10 $292 +$253 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $239 +$128 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $214 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $29 +$9 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $120 +$99 +82%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $120 +$126 +105%
AS Roma leading at halftime? May 10 $70 +$67 +95%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5) May 10 $5 −$4 -87%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $107 −$33 -30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $329 −$213 -65%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $226 +$94 +41%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 09 $57 −$26 -45%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 09 $232 −$232 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $39 +$19 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$21
other 20% −$63
sports 13% −$367
world 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $52 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $34 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $50 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -62.6% -66.1% 12% 6% -68.9%
≤30d 22 +17.2% +6.0% 18% 14% -50.2%
≤90d 54 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 33% -17.1%
all 54 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 33% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 33% -17.1%
10% -18.1% 26% -25.0%
15% -26.0% 22% -32.3%
20% -33.3% 17% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records