Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf247…5216 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (465 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$548,867 (+2073%) realized +$548,870 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day464.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,708
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (465 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.1% +3.2% 70% 30% -5.5%
≤30d 42 +12.4% +1.7% 69% 31% -3.7%
≤90d 42 +12.4% +1.7% 69% 31% -3.7%
all 42 +12.4% +1.7% 69% 31% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover464.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 31% -3.7%
10% -8.0% 12% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 10% -21.3%
20% -25.0% 7% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
85.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$44 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$548,870
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 37
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$716
Trades / day464.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - September 30, 7PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$28 -10143%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $2,638 −$229 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $544 −$59 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1,603 +$249 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $218 +$65 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1,199 +$167 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $223 +$38 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $184 +$30 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $653 +$82 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $988 +$83 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $751 +$67 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $436 +$82 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1,539 +$20 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $292 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $684 +$23 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $556 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $909 −$12 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $618 +$18 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $254 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $400 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $366 +$47 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $596 +$40 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $508 +$37 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $306 −$21 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $480 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $789 +$56 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$35 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$6 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $538 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $1,538 −$125 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $1,053 +$47 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $309 +$49 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $728 −$47 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $1,055 +$18 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $266 −$29 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $929 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $511 +$269 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $1,747 +$689 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.59 (match) · 3500 history records