Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf246…cbd4 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$17
sports 15% +$1
crypto 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.5% +19.9% 64% 57% -13.8%
≤30d 14 +32.5% +19.9% 64% 57% -13.8%
≤90d 14 +32.5% +19.9% 64% 57% -13.8%
all 14 +32.5% +19.9% 64% 57% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.9% 57% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here +8.4% 29% -22.1%
15% -2.1% 21% -29.6%
20% -11.7% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-8%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$15 +25%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$9 -51%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$17 +650%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$7 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 3h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 4h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 10h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 25h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.03 · official $52.03 (match) · 53 history records