Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf244…7be9 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+9%) realized +$42 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%35W / 35L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day150.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$19
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 43% +2.2%
≤30d 70 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 43% +2.2%
≤90d 70 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 43% +2.2%
all 70 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 43% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 43% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 37% -7.6%
15% -21.2% 31% -16.5%
20% -29.0% 23% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses35 / 35
Open positions7
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day150.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 27¢ 98¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+263%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 89¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Down 90¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? Yes 41¢ 33¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Up 21¢ 4¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? No 79¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 30¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 28¢ 2¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-91%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Up 13¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -68%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +179%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$11 +525%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +187%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$16 +155%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY No 79¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.55 · official $34.55 (match) · 218 history records