Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf242…4346
other · 142 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses46 / 96
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage468d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 0 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$20
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $56 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $205 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $298 −$17 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $168 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $54 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $67 −$11 -17%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $180 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $340 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $79 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $80 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -23%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $246 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $2 $0 -22%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $165 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $164 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $81 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $92 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $432 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$29
other 22% −$3
politics 18% $0
sports 12% +$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $15 50m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $16 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $54 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $4 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $28 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $21 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $54 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $54 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $53 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $55 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $61 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $61 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $60 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $60 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $54 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $55 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $20 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $20 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $60 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $60 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 31 -1.8% -11.2% 23% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 77 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.0%
all 142 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 534 history records