Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf242…9c31
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.5% -35.3% 15% 15% -32.3%
≤30d 13 -28.5% -35.3% 15% 15% -32.3%
≤90d 13 -28.5% -35.3% 15% 15% -32.3%
all 13 -28.5% -35.3% 15% 15% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 15% -32.3%
10% -41.5% 15% -38.8%
15% -47.2% 15% -44.7%
20% -52.4% 15% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $1.05 (match) · 17 history records