Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F2 0xf23f…af26 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$59 (+14%) realized +$91 · open −$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%3W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day10.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-6.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+3.6%	-6.3%	14%	14%	+6.3%
≤30d	22	+3.6%	-6.3%	14%	14%	+6.3%
≤90d	22	+3.6%	-6.3%	14%	14%	+6.3%
all	22	+3.6%	-6.3%	14%	14%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.3%	14%	+6.3%
10%	-15.3%	14%	-3.9%
15%	-23.4%	14%	-13.2%
20%	-30.9%	14%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -12% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$112 vs −$15 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized+$91

Unrealized−$32

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses3 / 19

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage3d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day10.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	Yes	7¢	10¢	$15	$22	+$8 (+50%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$15	$19	+$4 (+28%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$15	$16	+$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-99%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada?	Jun 24	$15	+$134	+873%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada?	Jun 24	$11	−$11	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 24	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 24	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada?	Jun 24	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada?	Jun 24	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$15	+$78	+510%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$21	+$122	+596%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$9	−$9	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada?	SELL Yes	100¢	$150	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada?	BUY Yes	6¢	$11	4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	4h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	9h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	6¢	$15	25h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	25h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	28h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$9	2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$18	2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	12¢	$8	3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	20¢	$15	3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	21¢	$26	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.68 · official $61.06 · 32 history records