Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf23d…9e3c crypto 108 markets active 3d ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%36W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$6
world 18% −$56
other 15% +$30
politics 12% +$10
culture 1% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -47.6% -52.6% 0% 0% -52.8%
≤30d 10 -24.8% -32.0% 20% 20% -32.1%
≤90d 12 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 25% -28.5%
all 105 -3.5% -12.7% 34% 27% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 27% -11.2%
10% -21.1% 18% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 10% -27.5%
20% -35.7% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses36 / 69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage332d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 71¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 13 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 13 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 13 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 13 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 13 $21 −$9 -42%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 13 $63 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 13 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 13 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 13 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 13 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 12 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 12 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 12 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 12 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 12 $30 −$15 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 12 $2 $0 +19%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 29 $25 −$17 -69%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 27 $30 +$4 +15%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 24¢ $4 3d
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 3d
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S BUY Yes 69¢ $11 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $13 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 26¢ $5 13d
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 76d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 78d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.71 · official $27.71 (match) · 322 history records