Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf23c…0a16 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$158 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%46W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$76
14 days−$71
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$89
other 27% +$24
weather 25% −$69
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 1% -10.4%
≤30d 229 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 229 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 229 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses46 / 183
Open positions3
Markets (closed)229 / 232
History coverage41d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $202 $321 +$120 (+59%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $2,262 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,114 +$2 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 15 $157 −$5 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $161 −$8 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 29? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 9? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $157 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $8 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $6 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 26h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $71 26h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,151 26h
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,114 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $34 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $67 40h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $6 43h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 43h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 43h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $6 43h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 43h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 45h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 46h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.37 · official $351.37 (match) · 833 history records