Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf23a…df6f sports 371 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,213 (-3%) realized −$1,176 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%256W / 105L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$561est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$31
14 days+$0
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$58
crypto 3% +$58
other 2% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +11.5% +0.8% 68% 35% -9.3%
≤30d 296 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 31% -9.8%
≤90d 361 +1.2% -8.5% 71% 29% -9.9%
all 361 +1.2% -8.5% 71% 29% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 29% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 12% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 7% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$30 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$1,176
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses256 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$561
Open positions12
Markets (closed)361 / 371
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ 37¢ $88 $37 −$51 (-58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $12 $15 +$4 (+33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristina Bucsa vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $79 +$7 +9%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $16 +$4 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $619 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 +$6 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $113 −$7 -6%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $56 +$29 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$2 +4%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +75%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $204 +$96 +47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $61 +$3 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $160 −$75 -47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $346 −$162 -47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$13 +178%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -62%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $254 −$52 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $1,072 +$119 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $238 +$12 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $84 +$12 +14%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $238 −$3 -1%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $277 −$1 -0%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $92 +$8 +8%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $53 +$6 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $134 +$2 +2%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $144 +$11 +8%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $48 +$12 +26%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$10 +47%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $41 +$9 +21%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $33 +$4 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $430 +$19 +4%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,162 +$38 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ $88 39m
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Anna Kalinskaya 86¢ $86 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 79¢ $79 59m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 76¢ $23 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 76¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 76¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 76¢ $9 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina SELL Anhelina Kalinina 60¢ $60 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 50¢ $50 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 81¢ $16 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 29¢ $58 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 28¢ $28 10h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 13h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $30 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $32 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.75 · official $142.20 (match) · 3500 history records