Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf234…a67d politics 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$15
other 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 68 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage631d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brentford be relegated? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Dec 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $51 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 25d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 25d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 36d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 37d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 69d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 70d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 74d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 74d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 81d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 82d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 93d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 96d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 97d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 98d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 99d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 105d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 106d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 113d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 114d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 114d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $53 117d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $53 118d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $51 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records