Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf233…4763 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$36 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$35
crypto 25% +$2
economics 24% −$4
politics 23% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 4 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 25% +1.9%
all 46 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage239d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $86 $83 −$3 (-4%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $57 +$2 +3%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 27 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $54 +$1 +2%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 04 $37 +$17 +46%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025? Jan 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Dec 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 24 $90 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 12? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 31? Nov 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2? Nov 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 31? Nov 07 $7 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 6? Nov 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 27? Oct 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Oct 26 $941 −$1 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $358 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Oct 26 $949 −$1 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Oct 26 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $360 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 26? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $452 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 26 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 26 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 26 $561 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 26 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? Oct 26 $2,124 −$2 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025? Oct 26 $350 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 26 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? BUY No 98¢ $60 71d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $59 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $57 87d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? BUY No 98¢ $54 138d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $37 144d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $22 192d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 99¢ $21 196d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 95¢ $78 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $15 209d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 96¢ $90 212d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $6 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 6? BUY No 98¢ $5 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $8 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 228d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 234d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 234d
Will Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 238d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? SELL No 99¢ $940 238d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? BUY No 99¢ $561 238d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? BUY No 99¢ $380 238d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $319 238d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $357 238d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $230 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.48 · official $88.48 (match) · 106 history records