trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.9% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 50% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 22 | +2.1% | -7.7% | 41% | 9% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.7% | 9% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -16.5% | 5% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -24.6% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -32.0% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 28 | $37 | −$1 | -3% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | May 06 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 22 | $14,074 | −$14 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Mar 22 | $378 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Mar 22 | $162 | +$3 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 24 | $92 | +$13 | +14% |
| Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? | Jan 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Jan 24 | $292 | +$15 | +5% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 05 | $11 | +$2 | +22% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Oct 24 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 30 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 05 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 05 | $244 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Oct 03 | $194 | $0 | +0% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Oct 03 | $228 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Oct 02 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? | Oct 01 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Sep 30 | $187 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Sep 29 | $108 | $0 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Sep 28 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Sep 28 | $100 | $0 | +0% |