Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf22b…7eab other 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,473 (-5%) realized −$2,378 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate41%85W / 120L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$7,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days−$103
14 days−$301
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$166
economics 14% −$4
tech 8% −$34
sports 8% −$335
finance 2% −$79
crypto 2% −$74
politics 1% −$54
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +6.2% -3.9% 44% 15% -10.7%
≤30d 166 -1.8% -11.2% 41% 17% -11.2%
≤90d 205 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 19% -10.8%
all 205 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 19% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 19% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 14% -19.4%
15% -29.1% 9% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$7,717
Realized−$2,378
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses85 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions155
Markets (closed)205 / 343
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 155 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 71¢ $466 $499 +$33 (+7%)
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 90¢ $489 $499 +$9 (+2%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 31¢ 43¢ $342 $478 +$136 (+40%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 80¢ 55¢ $585 $402 −$183 (-31%)
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $335 $389 +$54 (+16%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 80¢ $362 $383 +$22 (+6%)
Neutrl FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 60¢ 52¢ $428 $371 −$57 (-13%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 59¢ 58¢ $344 $341 −$3 (-1%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 83¢ $343 $337 −$7 (-2%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 42¢ 47¢ $228 $253 +$26 (+11%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 66¢ 71¢ $206 $222 +$16 (+8%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $214 $210 −$4 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 88¢ $169 $160 −$9 (-5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 74¢ 74¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $139 $141 +$3 (+2%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 39¢ 33¢ $131 $110 −$20 (-15%)
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 67¢ 68¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 56¢ $93 $100 +$6 (+7%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 72¢ 79¢ $88 $96 +$8 (+9%)
Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 68¢ $127 $93 −$34 (-26%)
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 68¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $85 $92 +$6 (+7%)
Tori FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 81¢ $73 $86 +$12 (+17%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $75 $82 +$6 (+8%)
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 68¢ 64¢ $87 $81 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 −$1 -4%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $330 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$6 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +3%
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -7%
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $43 −$20 -48%
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $76 +$5 +6%
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 17 $64 −$10 -16%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $26 $0 -2%
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $6 +$31 +551%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $300 −$5 -2%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 16 $417 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $34 +$5 +16%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $36 −$3 -8%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -20%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $252 +$88 +35%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $18 −$3 -14%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $253 +$39 +16%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$79 +444%
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 15 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Jun 15 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $287 −$12 -4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $496 −$53 -11%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $358 +$10 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in June? Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $177 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $717 +$40 +6%
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $57 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Reppo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +76%
Reppo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 13 $14 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $65 −$10 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $195 +$5 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $102 +$7 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $24 −$22 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $64 +$11 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $241 −$38 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $263 +$8 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $64 −$25 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $10 23m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 32m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 34m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 36m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $17 39m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 40m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $32 42m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 42m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 54m
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 78¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 86¢ $26 1h
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 48¢ $12 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $2 3h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $35 3h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 86¢ $21 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 78¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 78¢ $36 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $43 4h
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 32¢ $27 6h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 32¢ $34 6h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 8¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,716.98 · official $7,712.18 (match) · 3500 history records