Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf22a…e948 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-21%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$11
other 17% −$12
crypto 16% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -35.7% -41.8% 35% 26% -45.3%
≤30d 25 -40.8% -46.5% 32% 24% -52.4%
≤90d 25 -40.8% -46.5% 32% 24% -52.4%
all 25 -40.8% -46.5% 32% 24% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 24% -52.4%
10% -51.6% 24% -56.9%
15% -56.3% 20% -61.1%
20% -60.6% 16% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$5 -73%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 38m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 100¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 66¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere $0 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $4 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $9 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $2 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $6 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $9 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 12¢ $1 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records