Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf22a…06fb sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$8
world 22% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 13% −$15
tech 3% −$6
culture 1% $0
finance 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 5 -13.9% -22.1% 80% 0% -28.8%
≤90d 26 -2.8% -12.0% 58% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -2.8% -12.0% 58% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage139d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $17 +$2 +10%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 5.5 May 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Stade de Reims vs. Red Star FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? Mar 31 $114 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +3%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Mar 30 $13 +$1 +5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Mar 30 $14 +$1 +6%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Mar 30 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? Mar 29 $33 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Mar 29 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Mar 29 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $1,790 +$3 +0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Mar 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1,781 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? Mar 29 $169 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e Mar 29 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Mar 29 $924 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 29 $57 −$3 -5%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? Mar 29 $915 +$2 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 29 $938 +$2 +0%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 29 $930 −$1 -0%
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $49 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $12 58m
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $11 5d
Will Andorra win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 93¢ $12 16d
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $17 21d
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 29d
Stade de Reims vs. Red Star FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $19 58d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes $3 77d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes $30 77d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? BUY Yes $33 77d
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 77d
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 77d
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $4 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $13 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $29 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $52 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $2 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $2 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $39 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $43 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 92¢ $924 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $924 77d
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National SELL Yes 12¢ $71 77d
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National BUY Yes 12¢ $71 77d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $223 77d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $651 77d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $874 77d
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes $81 77d
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes $59 77d
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes $30 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.63 · official $11.63 (match) · 87 history records