Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf22a…aa99 politics 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 30% −$4
sports 18% −$3
culture 4% $0
economics 3% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 90 -5.3% -14.3% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage381d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $87 $0 -1%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $93 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 28 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $186 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $184 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $185 −$1 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $96 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $298 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $89 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $89 23d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 116d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 117d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $86 127d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $86 133d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 145d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 148d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 149d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 151d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $87 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $87 152d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 154d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 155d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 156d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 157d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $90 158d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $90 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.97 · official $88.97 (match) · 354 history records